Connecticut Government About To Come Apart

The handwriting is on the wall...

The corrections officers unions have begun to be tallied, according to tonight's Journal Inquirer.  2 of the 3 units that make up that union have voted against the concession package negotiated by the Malloy administration and SEBAC, the grand bargaining group that makes up the government unions in Connecticut.  Further, all it takes to bring down the SEBAC/Malloy deal is for the corrections and judicial unions to vote no.  In that event, it wouldn't matter if the other 14 of 15 unions agreed to the concessions package... it would still not be accepted.

In the same issue of the paper, there was yet another article about Gov. Malloy's sabre rattling about what will happen in the event that the unions do NOT ratify the concessions package.  According to Malloy, that would mean that there would be layoffs, and aide to town's would be cut.  Whether Malloy can carry through on either threat, or both, remains to be seen.  Re-election for a Democrat to the Governors office really requires both - he will need union hands and feet to get out the vote, and he'll need the support of the local town's and cities politicos for fundraising. 

Meanwhile, in yet a third story - the headline story, in fact, is about how the State will collect ALL of the 2011 increased taxes, from January 1 to the end of the year, in just the last 5 months of the year.  By this, I mean to say payroll taxes - in other words, the voters, or the ones that still have jobs anyway.  This means that the bite at the end of the year will be much worse than just the increase in the tax rate... it will be the "make up" taxes as well, thus enhancing the pain of the tax increase, for all who pay such taxes, to see.

So now I suppose it's time to play a little, "what if"... What if the unions DO NOT ratify the concession package.  Well, Malloy says he'll layoff State workers.  And I suspect he will.  But if he lays some off, my guess is that it won't be anywhere near the number needed to stop the cuts to town aid. Even Malloy says this.

So while some union employees begin to get pink slips, and they swell the roles of the unemployed in Connecticut and swell the outlays for unemployment insurance claims, cities and towns will begin to figure out what they have to do to make up for the loss of state revenue.

Towns will have to make choices.  Most will not want to cover those losses in revenue from fund balances.  They will have to begin to cut services, or more likely, begin layoffs themselves.  Perhaps they will be able to exact some concessions from their own government unions.  However, local government unions have already been down this road.  They've seen positions go unfilled and attrition take its toll even as they either gave concessions or watched their contract renewals result in much lower than average increases.

Either way, it boils down to more unemployed government workers, more unemployment claims, and lowered service levels.  Pools will close.   Class sizes will rise.  Leaves won't get picked up.  And the list goes on and on.

We are about to see what happens when the government begins to downsize in ways Connecticut has never seen before. 

Is this inevitable?  Well, maybe the unions will agree to the concession afterall.  But if I were a betting man - and I am a betting man - I'd bet against it.  There will be outstanding theater in weeks and months to come.  Sadly... it isnt' just theater.  We're talking about people's lives here - their taxes, their jobs, their kids education, and their quality of life. 

I've talked with people about this for years... that the current path is unsustainable.  The voters in this State and in this Town didn't listen.  Unfortunately, the will get what they voted for.